The goal of this deliverable is to provide guidelines that may allow scientists and decision makers to
bridge the gap between volcanological knowledge and a rational decision making. Part of the
content of this document has been published on the paper W. Marzocchi, C.G. Newhall, G. Woo
(2012). The scientific management of volcanic crises. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal
Research, 247-248, 181-189. This deliverable includes further development of the Marzocchi et al's
(2012) thoughts and an application to the exercise carried out at Campi Flegrei during the VUELCO
project. Worthy of note, this application has to be seen as a first simple and preliminary application
of these general thoughts to a real situation.

1. Cost benefit analysis
2. probabilistic methods