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IAVCEI Scientific Assembly , Portland OR 14-18 August 2017

COSIV (Co-)Sponsored Sessions:

• III.3 Statistical approaches and integrated methods for improved forecasting of volcanic eruptions
• V.3 Modeling volcanic hazard
• VIII.1 New approaches using statistical methods in volcanology

COSIV Workshops

• Pre-Conference Workshop on Volcano Record Completeness
• Post-Conference Workshop on Probabilistic Hazard assessment at Lassen Volcano

COSIV Meeting

The commission will hold a business meeting at IAVCEI in Portland. The agenda for the meeting is yet to be finalized, but will include reports from the leader and SiV editor, elections for the posts below, and any others that the meeting may decide are needed, and discussions about future commission activities. Posts that need to be filled for the next 4 year cycle are:

• Leader elect, who will take over at the IUGG meeting in 2019, current leader Patrick Whelley remaining on the executive for a further 2 years as ‘past leader’.
• Workshop organizer. The commission aims to hold one meeting in each 4 year cycle, probably in conjunction with one of the major conferences.
• Secretary (previously Liason committee delegate), responsible for liasing with other IAVCEI commissions
• 2 early career representatives.

Any member of COSIV can nominate someone (including themselves!) for a position. Nominations can be via email to Patrick , or from the floor at the meeting. If you have any questions, please contact Patrick or Mark .

New Working Group

COSIV is organizing a working group on "Volcanic Record Completeness":

Forecasting eruptions, including not just the time onset, but the size, location and effects, is vital for the purposes of hazard and risk assessment; However, forecasts are critically dependent on the quality of data available and the statistical methods employed. Going beyond the implausibility of forecasting outcomes that are not present in the data, inhomogeneity of the volcanic record(s) can introduce bias and result in incorrectly calculated forecasts and uncertainties. This inhomogeneity can be present in many forms, but a primary concern is the completeness of the records. In general this varies with eruption size and time (increasing in both dimensions) and, when considering aggregated records from multiple volcanoes, in space.

For further information contact: Susanna Jenkins Susanna.Jenkins@bristol.ac.uk Mark Bebbington m.bebbington@massey.ac.nz