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R Salvage: Predicting Unpredictable Systems: Can statistics help us forecast volcanic eruptions? COV 7
21 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Rebecca Olivia Salvage, Jurgen Neuberg
Abstract for oral presentation at COV 7 (Colima, Mexico) in November 2012
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R Salvage: Using Seismic Signals to Forecast Volcanic Processes: EGU 2012
21 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Rebecca Olivia Salvage, Jurgen Neuberg
Abstract for poster presented in Session GMPV 4.1: "Volcano monitoring with instrument networks: novel techniques, observations and interpretations"
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J W Neuberg, M Thomas, K Pascal, S Karl, A Collinson; EGU2012:On the mutual relationship between conceptual models and data sets in geophysical monitoring of volcanic systems.
21 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Jurgen Neuberg, Mark Thomas, Karen Pascal, Sandra Karl, Amy Collinson
Geophysical datasets are essential to guide particularly short-term forecasting of volcanic activity.. Key parameters are derived from these datasets and interpreted in different ways, however, the biggest impact on the interpretation is not determined by the range of parameters but controlled...
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Jurgen Neuberg, Karen Pascal; EGU 2012: Quantifying the errors due to the superposition of analytical deformation sources
21 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Jurgen Neuberg, Karen Pascal
The displacement field due to magma movement in the subsurface is often modelled using a Mogi point source or a dislocation Okada source embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space. When the magmatic system cannot be modelled by a single source it is often represented by several sources, their...
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J W Neuberg, Barcelona 2013 Presentation: Very-long-period seismic signals - filling the gap between deformation and seismicity
21 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Jurgen Neuberg
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Hazard Communication and Local Perception of Lahar Risk at Cotopaxi Volcano, Ecuador (VUELCO meeting, Barcelona, 2013)
21 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Olivia Cooke
This research examines risk perception and hazard communication for Cotopaxi Volcano, Ecuador, which has shown increased unrest in recent decades, since the last eruption in 1940, which may be suggestive of a future phase of eruptive activity. One of the main eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic...
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Between cyclic eruptions: The densification of bubble-bearing magma
20 Mar 2013
Volcanic unrest begins with precursory signals which are the detectable manifestation of dynamic subsurface changes. In 1997, Vulcanian eruptions from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, had a mean repose time of 9.5 hours and produced remarkably regular precursory signals. Cyclic...
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M.E. Thomas COV7 Presentation. Can we use seismicity to predict volcanic activity without understanding it?
20 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Mark Thomas, Jurgen Neuberg
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J. Gottsmann COV7 presentation
20 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Jo Gottsmann
Exploring the pre-eruptive geodetic signature of a future M7 explosive eruptionRecent eruptions of intermediate magmas in volcanic arcs with well-documented pre-eruptive geodetic signatures were of small to modest magnitude. The pre-eruptive ground deformation of a future large magnitude...
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How conduit models can be used to interpret volcano monitoring data. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU2012-8615, 2012
20 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Mark Thomas, Jurgen Neuberg, Sandra Karl, Amy Collinson, Karen Pascal
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Georgia Phillipson, Jo Gottsmann COV7 Colima abstract and presentation
20 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Jo Gottsmann
Global volcanic unrest in the 21st Century: An analysis of the first decadeVolcanic unrest is perhaps best defined as the deviation from the background or baseline behaviour of a volcano towards a level of activity, which is cause for concern in the short-term because it might be a prelude to an...
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The sensitivity of conduit flow models to basic input parameters: there is no need for magma trolls! Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol.14, EGU2012-8467, 2012.
20 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Mark Thomas, Jurgen Neuberg
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Phillipson and Gottsmann EGU2012 Vol. 14, EGU2012-3695, 2012
20 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Jo Gottsmann
Volcanic unrest is the deviation from the background or baseline behaviour of a volcano towards a level of activity, which is cause for concern in the short term because it might be a prelude to an eruption. When volcanic unrest is preceded by lengthy periods of quiescence it is particularly...
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Predicting changes in volcanic activity through modelling magma ascent rate (VUELCO Barcelona meeting, March 2013)
20 Mar 2013 | Contributor(s): Mark Thomas, Jurgen Neuberg
It is a simple fact that changes in volcanic activity happen and in retrospect they are easy to spot, the dissimilar eruption dynamics between an effusive and explosive event, or simply the appearance of magma at the surface where it was not previously are signs hard not to miss. However to be...
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J. Gottsmann EGU 2012 Abstract Vol. 14, EGU2012-2353, 2012
20 Mar 2013 | Publications | Contributor(s): Jo Gottsmann
In this presentation I explore magma chamber stress conditions prior to a large-magnitude andesitic eruption and associated pre-eruptive ground deformation and gravity field perturbations. The analyis is informed by constraints from multi-disciplinary investigations of the data-rich and ongoing...
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Between cyclic eruptions (VUELCO meeting, Barcelona, 2013)
20 Mar 2013 | Presentations | Contributor(s): Fabian Ben Wadsworth
Volcanic unrest begins with precursory signals which are the detectable manifestation of dynamic subsurface changes. In 1997, Vulcanian eruptions from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, had a mean repose time of 9.5 hours and produced remarkably regular precursory signals. Cyclic...
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Constraining conditions for phreatic eruptions and evaluating the influence of hydrothermal alteration on the process: an experimental approach (Vuelco mini conference Barcelona 2013)
20 Mar 2013 | Presentations | Contributor(s): Klaus Mayer, Betty Scheu
Phreatic eruptions are caused by rapid evaporation of hydrothermal fluids to steam with the resulting pore overpressure leading to fragmentation of overlying rocks.We investigate White Island (New Zealand) and the active volcanic sites Solfatara and Monte Nuovo in Campi Flegrei (Italy); further...
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Constraining edifice stability and phreatic eruptions at White Island, New Zealand (CoV 7 2012)
20 Mar 2013 | Presentations | Contributor(s): Klaus Mayer, Betty Scheu
White Island is New Zealand's most active volcano and is primarily characterised by phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions, interspersed by occasional strombolian events. The common occurrence of magma-water interaction at White Island derives from the presence hydrothermal system that induces...
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The onset of dense plug formation during cyclic eruptions at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (COV 7, 2012)
20 Mar 2013 | Presentations | Contributor(s): Fabian Ben Wadsworth, Betty Scheu
Cyclicity at active volcanoes is commonly observed and interpreted to reflect periods of vesiculation and gas pressurisation beneath more dense degassed plugs. In 1997, Vulcanian eruptions from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, had a mean repose time of 9.5 hours. We consider the...
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Timescales of dyke widening and draining during an eruption at Red Crater, New Zealand (COV 7, 2012)
20 Mar 2013 | Presentations | Contributor(s): Fabian Ben Wadsworth
Near-surface basaltic dykes may become unstable when buoyancy and overpressure are not maintained and solidification not fully accomplished. Additionally temporal variation of the dyke geometry such as widening may further compromise stability and induce draining. A 5-10 m wide, variably dipping...