Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard

By Roberto Tonini1, Laura Sandri2, Jacopo Selva1, Warner Marzocchi

1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Italy 2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Compute long-term volcanic hazard using Bayesian inference

Launch Tool

This tool version is unpublished and cannot be run. If you would like to have this version staged, you can put a request through HUB Support.

Archive Version 1.1
Published on 07 Jun 2013
Latest version: 2.1. All versions

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Abstract

The main purpose of this software is to provide a graphically supported computation of long-term probabilities of volcanic hazardous phenomena (i.e., lava flows, tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, lahars, etc.) through a Bayesian Event Tree model for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the available information, such as models, a priori beliefs, and past data. It is mainly based on a Bayesian procedure, in order to quantify the aleatory and epistemic uncertainty characterizing the impact of volcanic eruptions in terms of hazard assessment. The method deals only with long-term forecasting, therefore in principle it can be useful for land use planning. You can find the BET_VH User Guide at https://vhub.org/topics/BETVHUserGuide For further information you can visit our group at https://vhub.org/groups/webet

References

  • Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Selva J. (2010) BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment, Bulletin of Volcanology, Volume 72, Issue 6, pp 705-716, DOI: 10.1007/s00445-010-0357-8

Publications

  • Sandri L., Jolly G., Lindsay J., Howe T., Marzocchi W. (2012) Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, Bulletin of Volcanology, Volume 74, Issue 3, pp 705-723, DOI: 10.1007/s00445-011-0556-y
  • Selva, J., Costa A., Marzocchi, W., L. Sandri (2010) BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy), Bulletin of Volcanology, Volume 72, Number 6, 717-733, DOI: 10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7

Cite this work

Researchers should cite this work as follows:

  • Roberto Tonini; Laura Sandri; Jacopo Selva; Warner Marzocchi (2016), "Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard," https://theghub.org/resources/betvh.

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Tags

  1. Bayesian inference
  2. bet_vh
  3. hazard curves
  4. hazard maps
  5. probability map
  6. pvha
  7. volcanic hazard assessment