NH2.3
Advances in probabilistic assessment of Hazards and Risks at active volcanoes Convener: Jacopo Selva, Co-Conveners: Henry Odbert , L. Sandri , Willy Aspinall , Thea Hinks
Significant advances have been made in observing and understanding volcanic hazards. Quantitative Hazard and Risk Analyses (QHAs and QRAs) are the key scientific contributions of science to enable a rational management of such hazards. QHAs consist of the assessment of the likelihood of hazards at different sizes, including expectations of how hazards would evolve. The risks they pose may be estimated via QRAs which, building on QHAs, attempt to incorporate the consequent impact footprint, accounting for the exposure and vulnerability of people and property at risk. In regions around volcanoes that are erupting or have potential to erupt, QHAs and QRAs can provide useful tools for guiding decision makers on matters relating to risk mitigation, alongwith quantitative criteria such as cost-benefit analysis. The usefulness of such models depends on their robustness in incorporating realistic distributions for potential hazardous events, and on their accuracy in capturing the uncertainty of those distributions. Often the timely availability of hazard and risk analyses, and the assessment of their temporal evolution by including monitoring data, are critical for the analysis to have real world impact in a developing crisis. Combining these requirements is a major challenge in real-time volcano hazard and risk monitoring as a crisis develops.
We invite abstracts on the development of volcanic QHAs and QRAs and the visualization of their output, and on the inclusion of results from numerical modelling, statistical analyses, expert judgement and monitoring data in such analyses, representing additional tools for quantitative decision support during volcanic crises. Specific attention will be given to contributions focused on applications at volcanoes in unrest.