Main purpose of the commission and justification
A commission on volcanic hazards and risk would be dedicated to applied volcanology a key realm of volcanology that occupies the front line between academic research and governmental organizations that are responsible for decision-making and policy processes that reduce the impact of volcanic hazards on society. Such a commission would focus on understanding, quantifying and communicating the hazards, the extent and likelihood of their occurrence and assessing their impacts and the societal vulnerabilities they create from near to far-field. The work in this commission would also unify some efforts covered across other commissions: one example is the tephra hazard modeling commission which is a dynamic community developing and utilizing advanced approaches, but that works in isolation relative to other volcanic hazards. One objective of the hazards and risk commission would be to improve the level of integration of hazard mapping and modeling approaches across the spectrum of volcanic hazards, as ultimately most volcanic hazard maps include integrated information. Recently, there have been numerous and high quality efforts by the larger community in this area (see previous activities section below), however to some extent they represent dispersed, isolated, efforts driven by individual research projects and groups. The IAVCEI community still lacks a unified long-term vision for the advancement of science related to volcanic hazards and particularly in considering volcanic risk. In particular, those working for government institutions generating hazard maps have noted the paucity of available guidance, best practices and training experiences and often times feel far removed from the forefront of relevant research developments. Instigating a commission on volcanic hazards and risk is both timely and community-driven. There is both a research push from volcanologists pushing at the frontiers between volcanic hazard and risk and a societal pull coming from the increased need for systematised, universal approaches to analysing and characterising volcanic hazards. There are difficult fundamental questions that need to be asked about the role of volcanologists in providing and driving advice and analysis in this domain and it will become more important to provide a professional forum for that discussion. We propose an interim leadership team which would initiate the commission activities and carry the commission though to COV8 in 2014, where we would decide on a 3-year leadership team by open vote. Subsequent leadership will be decided at IAVCEI general assemblies on a 4-year cycle. Interim leadership: Commission leader, Eliza Calder; Vice-chair (hazards), Jan Lindsay; Vice-chair (risk), Jo Gottsman, Webmaster, John Stevenson. Additional office roles will become available at COV8.
There is some natural overlap of interest with other commissions e.g. Tephra Hazard Modeling and Statistics in Volcanology. Some overlap here with Commission of Statistics in Volcanology.
Principal Topics Covered
1. Hazard Mapping: The methods and best practices of generating effective hazard maps based on an understanding of the physical processes involved. Including integration of field and where appropriate modeling methods (both deterministic and probabilistic) for different hazards associated with volcanic eruptions.
2. Hazard Assessments: The methods and best practices of estimation of hazard, or hazard assessment (which do not always include maps). The integration of field and modeling methods for all hazards associated with volcanic eruptions including those for individual volcanic edifices, site-specific assessments, regional volcanic hazards, and volcanic hazards associated with volcanic field volcanism.
3. Risk Assessments: Integration of hazard assessments with impact and vulnerability studies, and thus a highly multidisciplinary area.
4. Risk Communication and Perception: An emerging but critically important field and again a highly multidisciplinary area. Risk communication is the means by which warnings or technical information about volcanic activity is used and understood by populations around volcanoes in order to formulate decisions that reduce individual and societal risk. The effectiveness of communication can be modulated by complex social and political issues as well as varying perceptions and expectations of activity or even warnings. The lack of effective translation of warnings or technical information into actions to reduce risk provides a significant additional input to risk. Efforts here would be to promote new analyses of these processes and their impact, encouraging improved collaboration between volcanologists and social scientists and to apply these findings with more effective interactions between physical volcanologists and those involved in research or policy decisions that act to mitigate risk.
5. Science into Policy: An emerging but critically important field, involving two-way knowledge transfer between scientists and end-users. A key aspect of this work will be to help guide the needs-defined development of hazard science and products in order to tailor our science better to what is needed by the community. Efforts here may include engineering amelioration as well as issues and policy that affect a societies capacity to recover; building resilient and sustainable communities in volcanically active regions.