=== Main purpose of the commission and justification === A commission on volcanic hazards and risk would be dedicated to applied volcanology a key realm of volcanology that occupies the front line between academic research and governmental organizations that are responsible for decision-making and policy processes that reduce the impact of volcanic hazards on society. Such a commission would focus on understanding, quantifying and communicating the hazards, the extent and likelihood of their occurrence and assessing their impacts and the societal vulnerabilities they create from near to far-field. The work in this commission would also unify some efforts covered across other commissions: one example is the tephra hazard modeling commission which is a dynamic community developing and utilizing advanced approaches, but that works in isolation relative to other volcanic hazards. One objective of the hazards and risk commission would be to improve the level of integration of hazard mapping and modeling approaches across the spectrum of volcanic hazards, as ultimately most volcanic hazard maps include integrated information. Recently, there have been numerous and high quality efforts by the larger community in this area (see previous activities section below), however to some extent they represent dispersed, isolated, efforts driven by individual research projects and groups. The IAVCEI community still lacks a unified long-term vision for the advancement of science related to volcanic hazards and particularly in considering volcanic risk. In particular, those working for government institutions generating hazard maps have noted the paucity of available guidance, best practices and training experiences and often times feel far removed from the forefront of relevant research developments. Instigating a commission on volcanic hazards and risk is both timely and community-driven. There is both a research push from volcanologists pushing at the frontiers between volcanic hazard and risk and a societal pull coming from the increased need for systematised, universal approaches to analysing and characterising volcanic hazards. There are difficult fundamental questions that need to be asked about the role of volcanologists in providing and driving advice and analysis in this domain and it will become more important to provide a professional forum for that discussion. We propose an interim leadership team which would initiate the commission activities and carry the commission though to COV8 in 2014, where we would decide on a 3-year leadership team by open vote. Subsequent leadership will be decided at IAVCEI general assemblies on a 4-year cycle. Interim leadership: Commission leader, Eliza Calder; Vice-chair (hazards), Jan Lindsay; Vice-chair (risk), Jo Gottsman, Webmaster, John Stevenson. Additional office roles will become available at COV8. === Principal Topics Covered === '''1. Hazard Mapping''': The methods and best practices of generating effective hazard maps based on an understanding of the physical processes involved in the respective hazards. Including integration of field and modeling methods (both deterministic and probabilistic) for all hazards associated with volcanic eruptions. Overlap here with work done in other commissions e.g. Commissions on Explosive Volcanism; Tephra Hazard Modeling and Statistics in Volcanology. '''2. Hazard Assessments''': The methods and best practices of estimation of hazard, or hazard assessment (which do not always include maps). The integration of field and modeling methods for all hazards associated with volcanic eruptions including those for individual volcanic edifices, site-specific assessments, regional volcanic hazards, and volcanic hazards associated with volcanic field volcanism. Overlap here with work done in other commissions e.g. Statistics in Volcanology. '''3. Risk Assessments''': Integration of hazard assessments with impact and vulnerability studies, and thus a highly multidisciplinary area. There would be some overlap here with the work of other commission e.g. Statistics in Volcanology and possibly Cities on Volcanoes. '''4. Risk Communication and Perception''': An emerging but critically important field and again a highly multidisciplinary area. Risk communication is the means by which warnings or technical information about volcanic activity is used and understood by populations around volcanoes in order to formulate decisions that reduce individual and societal risk. The effectiveness of communication can be modulated by complex social and political issues as well as varying perceptions and expectations of activity or even warnings. The lack of effective translation of warnings or technical information into actions to reduce risk provides a significant additional input to risk. Efforts here would be to promote encourage new analyses of these processes and their impact encouraging improved collaboration between volcanologists and social scientists and to apply these findings with more effective interactions between physical volcanologists and those involved in research or policy decisions that act to mitigate risk. '''5. Science into Policy''': An emerging but critically important field, involving two-way knowledge transfer between scientists and end-users. A key aspect of this work will be to help guide the needs-defined development of hazard science and products in order to tailor our science better to what is needed by the community. Efforts here may include engineering amelioration as well as issues and policy that affect a societies capacity to recover; building resilient and sustainable communities in volcanically active regions. === Previous related activities === A number of activities have taken place over the last four years that correspond directly to advancement of volcanic hazards research demonstrating the high level of both interest and dynamism in the community in this area. These initiatives have been supported by projects from government funding agencies raised by individuals, or collaborative groups of researchers, combined with IAVCEI contributions largely through the Commission on Explosive Volcanism. The fact that such initiatives can readily leverage funding from national research councils reinforces that this is an area of applied volcanology with direct and obvious societal impact that is identified around the globe as a priority for support. List of just some of the recent initiatives: 2010 Summer school on Computer models and geophysical risk analysis. August 2010, University of British Columbia, Sponsored by Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences and NSF. (http://www.pims.math.ca/scientific-event/100806-sscmgra). 2011 Workshop on The analysis of probabilistic volcanic hazards. University at Buffalo, May 2011, Sponsored by NSF and IAVCEI. 2013 Workshop on Applying computational models to real-case scenarios for volcanic hazard assessment. Funded by National Science Foundation - Pan-American Advanced Studies Institute Program (PASI). 2013 Volcano Observatories Best Practices 2, November 2013 in Erice, Italy. === Activities for next two Years === The initial stages of formation of this commission will involve the bringing together of a dynamic group of workers with interest and experience in related fields, the definition of a list of working goals and objectives, and putting into place a schedule of activities. At IAVCEI 2013, we will be visiting the commission meetings of the other relevant commissions to advertise our efforts in initiating this commission. Once approved, initial efforts will be focused on hazard mapping because the previous and ongoing activities have been working on this theme and it would be timely and effective if the initial commission efforts were to lever this momentum. The following is a list of high-priority activities: 1. Hold initial meeting at IAVCEI 2013. Bring together interested participants and propose a group of initial leaders. Establish contact with the three related commissions and discuss how to manage areas of overlap in order to best benefit each commission. 2. The generation of a series of products - review documents hazard-related issues. The five topics listed in the proposal outline form a natural progression of increasing complexity, so the initial 5-year project plan would result in a series of products until the five topics have been covered. These products would be in the form of documents that provide community-driven guidelines and that can be given an IAVCEI stamp of approval. This would be the central focus of the commissions initial efforts. 1. IAVCEI Guidelines for the Development of Volcanic Hazard Maps 2. IAVCEI Guidelines for Hazard Assessments 3. IAVCEI Guidelines for Risk Assessments 3. IAVCEI Guidelines for the analysis of Risk Perception and Communication 5. IAVCEI Guidelines for Science into Policy These guidelines would balance having some level of specificity but also be flexible enough for local implementation in different cultural, political, and scientific environments. The documents would provide a concise common starting place for workers embarking on these various topics which nucleate and focus discussions within the volcanology community and give IAVCEI a strong and practical tie to tools that would be used "on the ground." Such an effort would also form a focused basis for linking in other related efforts such as the Tephra Working Group, and Model Benchmarking Group, etc. 3. Collaborate with, support and attend existing workshops and meetings held which relate to volcanic hazards. There are currently several international projects which hold regular workshops and meetings on volcanic hazard related topics (e.g. VOPB, STREVA, GVM, VUELCO). We propose, instead of holding a plethora of more workshops and meetings, this commission will concentrate efforts and strengthen what is already being planned (where apprppriate). An example is the upcoming VOBP workshop on Communicating hazards, which some of this commission’s leadership will attend. The main objectives at these initial meetings will be to advertise the goals and objectives of this commission, and recruit long-term members, but also to ensure that relevant project outcomes feed into the wider commission products, where they can then be used to benefit a much wider community. 4. Promote the integration of cyberinfrastructure approaches. Use and promote the use of cyberinfrastructure initiatives like VHub. This is a major knowledge exchange infrastructure, which can fundamentally alter the landscape of how collaborative work in volcanic hazards can be undertaken. === Schedule of specific planned activities for 2013-2014 === 2013 November-December. Website up and running, membership registration, email list set up. Link to VHub group. (John Stevenson to lead). 2013 December, first e-newsletter out to members. (Calder, Lindsay, Gottsmann & Stevenson) 2013 Volcano Observatories Best Practices 2 is scheduled for early November 2013 in Erice. Communicating Hazards. Commission on Hazards and Risk officers will attend/contribute where appropriate. 2013 2nd VUELCO WORKSHOP entitled “Scientific advice, decision-making, risk communication” which will be held on Nov. 7 - 8, 2013 in Rome (Italy). Commission on Hazards and Risk officers will attend/contribute where appropriate. (Gottsmann to lead). 2014 COV – 3-day workshop on hazard mapping methods. (Proposal already submitted by Calder, Delgado and Lindsay). 2014 COV - Session on Hazards to be proposed. 2014 EGU– Session to be proposed. 2015 IUGG Prague – Session to be proposed. …………………………………………….. * [Special:AllPages Full article list] * [Special:NewPages A list of new articles] * [Special:RecentChanges Recently changed articles] === Questions? === * [Help:Index Help Articles] * [Help:WikiFormatting Wiki Formatting] * [Help:WikiMacros Wiki Macros]